The only noticeable difference is that amateurs lacked the upswing at 50 years, and were relatively more likely to push their predictions beyond 75 years. This does not look like good news for the experts – if their performance can’t be distinguished from amateurs, what contributions is their expertise making?”
[…] modern predictors are claiming about the same time will elapse before AI arrives as their (incorrect) predecessors. This doesn’t mean that the modern experts are wrong – maybe AI really is imminent this time round, maybe modern experts have more information and are making more finely calibrated guesses. But in a field like AI prediction, where experts lack feed back for their pronouncements, we should expect them to perform poorly, and for biases to dominate their thinking.
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