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Machine intelligence is improving rapidly, to the point that the scientist of the future may not even be human! In fact, in more and more fields, learning machines are already outperforming humans.

Artificial intelligence expert Jürgen Schmidhuber isn’t able to predict the future accurately, but he explains how machines are getting creative, why 40’000 years of Homo sapiens-dominated history are about to end soon, and how we can try to make the best of what lies ahead.

Also see: Q&A with Jürgen Schmidhuber on risks from AI

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Stuart Armstrong: How We’re Predicting AI from Singularity Institute on

‎The only noticeable difference is that amateurs lacked the upswing at 50 years, and were relatively more likely to push their predictions beyond 75 years. This does not look like good news for the experts – if their performance can’t be distinguished from amateurs, what contributions is their expertise making?”

[…] modern predictors are claiming about the same time will elapse before AI arrives as their (incorrect) predecessors. This doesn’t mean that the modern experts are wrong – maybe AI really is imminent this time round, maybe modern experts have more information and are making more finely calibrated guesses. But in a field like AI prediction, where experts lack feed back for their pronouncements, we should expect them to perform poorly, and for biases to dominate their thinking.

Link: AI timeline predictions: are we getting better?

Further reading

Interview series on risks from AI

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Videos #1

If you wonder, Robert was some dude playing the same game: Motocross Madness 2

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Christopher Hitchens deconstructs the ten commandments and adds a few of his own for the April issue of Vanity Fair.

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Scientists admit that radiometric dating, one of the fundamental techniques used to show the earth is billions of years old is flawed!!! The earth is not 4.55 billion years old. Watch and find out just how old it really is.

Of course, scientists are always refining their techniques, it’s part of of science works. Creationists have pointed to a number of “results” from radiometric dating that prove it doesn’t work. Here I go over all the reasons why. Why is there Carbon-14 in some coal. Why did Potassium-Argon dating of the 1980 eruption of Mount Saint Helens give ages on the order of hundreds of thousands of years.

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This video describes rewarding brain stimulation.
For references and more information visit

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