A quick breakdown of my probability estimates of an extinction risk due to artificial general intelligence (short: unfriendly AI), the possibility that such an outcome might be adverted by the creation of a friendly AI, and that the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (short: MIRI) will play an important technical role in this.
Probability of an extinction by artificial general intelligence: 5 × 10^-10
1% that an an information-theoretically simple artificial general intelligence is feasible (where “simple” means that it has less than 0.1% of the complexity of an emulation of the human brain), as opposed to a very complex “Kludge AI” that is being discovered piece by piece (or evolved) over a long period of time (where “long period of time” means more than 150 years).
0.1%, conditional on the above, that such an AI cannot or will not be technically confined, and that it will by default exhibit all basic AI drives in an unbounded manner (that friendly AI is required to make an AI sufficiently safe in order for it to not want to wipe out humanity).
1%, conditional on the above, that an intelligence explosion is possible (that it takes less than 2 decades after the invention of an AI (that is roughly as good as humans (or better, perhaps unevenly) at mathematics, programming, engineering and science) for it to self-modify (possibly with human support) to decisively outsmart humans at the achievement of complex goals in complex environments).
5%, conditional on the above, that such an intelligence explosion is unstoppable (e.g. by switching the AI off (e.g. by nuking it)), and that it will result in human extinction (e.g. because the AI perceives humans to be a risk, or to be a resource).
10%, conditional on the above, that humanity will not be first wiped out by something other than an unfriendly AI (e.g. molecular nanotechnology being invented with the help of a narrow AI).
Probability of a positive technical contribution to friendly AI by MIRI: 2.5 × 10^-14
5%, conditional on the above, that the Machine Intelligence Research Institute will make an important technical contribution to friendly AI.