(The following is adapted from a scenario by Graham Priest, depicted in his book ‘Logic: A Very Short Introduction‘.)
Suppose that at some point you find yourself in a posthuman hell. But you have one chance to get out of it. You can toss a coin; if it comes down heads, you are out and go to heaven. If it comes down tails, you stay in hell forever. The coin is not a fair one, however, and the posthuman entity that simulates the hell has control of the odds. If you toss it today, the chance of heads is 1/2 (i.e. 11/2). If you wait till tomorrow, the chances go up to 3/4 (i.e. 11/2^2). If you wait n days, the chance of going to heaven goes up to 11/2^n. How long are you going to wait before tossing the coin?
The associated values of remaining in hell or escaping are constant over time.
Tags: decision theory, rationality

Lukasz Stafiniak

Alexander Kruel

Lukasz Stafiniak

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Aris Katsaris

Peter Hurford

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